Pakistan’s fuel prices are expected to witness contrasting movements from December 16, with diesel consumers likely to receive major relief, while petrol prices could inch upward, according to market estimates.
Analysts at Arif Habib Limited project that high-speed diesel (HSD) prices may fall by as much as Rs. 13.69 per liter, making it one of the largest diesel price cuts in recent weeks. On the other hand, petrol (motor spirit) prices are expected to rise slightly by around Rs. 1.43 per liter.
The expected decline in diesel prices is primarily linked to a notable drop in global oil markets. Data shows that international gas oil prices declined by nearly 8 percent, averaging $81.40 per barrel during the first half of December, compared to over $88 per barrel in the previous cycle.
In contrast, international petrol prices showed limited movement, averaging $75.20 per barrel, which explains the marginal increase projected for local petrol rates.
Currency stability has also played a role in keeping price volatility in check. The Pakistani rupee remained relatively steady, averaging around Rs. 280.59 against the US dollar during the review period.
However, experts caution that the final prices will depend on government decisions, particularly regarding the petroleum levy on diesel, which may be adjusted to support FY2026 revenue targets.
Additionally, proposals to increase oil marketing company (OMC) margins by Rs. 0.61 per liter are under consideration and await approval from the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC).
If approved without major changes, petrol prices could rise from Rs. 263.45 to approximately Rs. 264.87 per liter, while diesel prices may see a substantial reduction, offering relief to transporters, farmers, and logistics sectors.
